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Evaluate A Frozen Preseason Prior

Evaluate the lagged-RAPM baseline with:

uv run nba-evaluate-frozen-lagged-prior --season 2025-26

The command resolves the latest regular-only forward RAPM run unless --prior-run-id is supplied. It freezes the completed 2024-25 player state and evaluates the full 2025-26 regular season and playoffs without fitting any 2025-26 player coefficient.

Evaluate the forward age/draft/physical candidate with:

uv run nba-evaluate-frozen-aging-prior --season 2025-26

This command resolves the latest validated aging model and regular-only lagged RAPM run. The former supplies frozen player values; the latter supplies the common 2024-25 mean and home-court term. Pass --aging-run-id or --reference-prior-run-id to make either dependency explicit. Neither command fits a 2025-26 player coefficient.

The immutable run is published under:

artifacts/models/frozen_prior_evaluation/<season>/<run-id>/

The artifact includes:

  • separate regular-season and playoff possession/game metrics;
  • possession and game predictions;
  • regular-season team net-rating predictions and metrics;
  • Pythagorean expected wins from a forward historical NetRtg-to-win mapping;
  • raw predicted game-winner counts retained as a diagnostic;
  • the historical team-season panel used to fit the win mapping;
  • the exact frozen player-prior table and source-state declaration;
  • a hash-validated manifest and MLflow index.

Realized target-season lineups are an explicit oracle input. Target-season outcomes appear only on the evaluation side of the artifact.