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Audit Era-Conditioned Aging

This no-RAPM-refit diagnostic explains the Era-Conditioned Aging HPM result. It reconstructs the terminal value-conditioned aging pipeline from its immutable historical coefficient state, loads the terminal era-conditioned pipeline, and compares their population partial-age-effect curves.

uv run nba-build-era-conditioned-aging-audit --season 2025-26

The command writes an immutable audit under artifacts/analysis/era_conditioned_aging/2025-26/, including the curve comparison, possession-weighted veteran-cohort prior errors, and a rendered curve-delta figure. It refreshes the analysis section of Era-Conditioned Aging HPM.

The cohort error table is diagnostic only: it compares each frozen player prior with its own completed-season RAPM refit for returning players. It is not a new preseason leaderboard measure and does not use 2025-26 outcomes to construct the frozen priors.