Train the NAIL Lower-Quintile Critical-Spacing Candidate

This controlled candidate differs from the lower-tercile Critical Spacing experiment only in its forward-safe threshold. For each seasonal context state, the model identifies the bottom 20% of shrunk three_pm_per_100 profiles. A unit receives critical_spacing = 1 when at least two players fall strictly below that lower-quintile cutoff.

uv run nba-train-nail-critical-spacing-quintile \
  --log-path artifacts/logs/nail-critical-spacing-quintile.log

Follow recursive seasonal progress:

tail -f artifacts/logs/nail-critical-spacing-quintile.log

After training, run the matched three-season frozen comparison:

uv run nba-evaluate-nail-critical-spacing-quintile \
  --log-path artifacts/logs/nail-critical-spacing-quintile-frozen.log

Publish the full three-term non-additive diagnostic chart after the recursive fit. The audit includes usage_concentration, top_two_assists, and the new quintile Critical Spacing coefficient, so it can detect displacement of either retained term.

uv run nba-audit-nail-critical-spacing-quintile-weights