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Audit Value HPM Reproducibility

Value-Conditioned Aging HPM is deterministic: it has no seeded initialization, random data split, minibatch ordering, or sampling step. A rerun should therefore reproduce the prior artifact up to ordinary floating-point tolerance.

uv run nba-build-value-conditioned-aging-reproducibility-audit \
  --reference-run-dir artifacts/models/forward_centered_value_conditioned_aging_bounded_hierarchical_portable_matchup_contextual_rapm/2025-26/<prior-run-id> \
  --season 2025-26

By default, the candidate is the latest Value HPM artifact. The audit compares historical player coefficients, frozen cohort metrics, game predictions, team NetRtg predictions, and team-win predictions at an absolute tolerance of 1e-10. It writes an immutable report under artifacts/analysis/value_conditioned_aging_reproducibility/2025-26/ and refreshes the model page.