Train NAIL-RAPM v1.2.1.2 Back-to-Back Control

Last updated: 2026-08-24

This candidate holds the NAIL v1.2.1.1 profile contract fixed, including conventional USG%, and adds one known-before-tipoff schedule feature: home back-to-back minus away back-to-back.

Run the recursive fit through the current completed season:

uv run nba-train-nail-v1212-back-to-back \
  --through-season 2025-26 \
  --log-path artifacts/logs/nail-v1212-back-to-back.log

Follow its progress:

tail -f artifacts/logs/nail-v1212-back-to-back.log

The default schedule Ridge penalty matches the current context penalty. Test a different fixed penalty only with an explicit value:

uv run nba-train-nail-v1212-back-to-back --schedule-alpha 10000

After training, run the strict three-season replay. It compares the candidate to both the production v1.2.1 model and the standard-USG% v1.2.1.1 baseline:

uv run nba-backtest-nail-v1212-back-to-back \
  --log-path artifacts/logs/nail-v1212-back-to-back-frozen.log

Then run the paired bootstrap against the standard-USG% parent branch:

uv run nba-bootstrap-nail-v1212-back-to-back

Render the required 30-season coefficient trajectory:

uv run nba-audit-nail-v1212-back-to-back-weights

See Schedule Controls for the data contract.