Rotation Models
Rotation models forecast playing-time allocation rather than player value. Their first target is a player's share of a team's total minutes in its next game. This includes whether a player appears and how much the player is used.
The initial family member is deliberately parameter-free:
| Model | Forecast | Inputs |
|---|---|---|
| L0-MSP v0.0 | Opening team-game minute share | Prior final-game shares plus transaction-derived opening candidates |
| L20-MSP v0.0 | Cumulative share across first 20 team games | Prior-season total minutes plus transaction-derived opening candidates |
| L20-MSP v0.1 | Cumulative share across first 20 team games | L20-MSP plus a strictly preseason gap-returner prior |
| L20-NAIL-MSP v0.1 | Cumulative share across first 20 team games | L20-MSP plus completed prior-season NAIL-RAPM |
| L20-NAIL-MSP v0.2 | Cumulative share across first 20 team games | L20-MSP plus the exact target-season preseason NAIL forecast |
| L20-NAIL-MSP v0.3 | Cumulative share across first 20 team games | Source-aware role evidence for continuous players, gap returners, and cold starts |
| Forward Availability v0.1 | Season medical-availability share | Initial benchmark; superseded by v0.2 |
| Forward Availability v0.2 | Season medical-availability share | Exposure-shrunk first state; clears age-only frozen benchmark |
| Forward Conditional Minutes v0.1 | Preseason minutes per available game | In development: aging and exposure-shrunk player state |
| AC-MSP v0.1 | Game-level conditional minute allocation | Observed availability mask; all regulation regular-season games |
| L1-MSP v0.0 | Next team-game minute share | That player's prior team-game minute share only |
| L5-MMP v0.1 | Next team-game minute share | Five prior team-game minute totals |
NAIL-RAPM remains a rating model. Rotation models will eventually provide the player and five-man exposure forecasts needed to turn ratings into game and season predictions.