Train Forward Box-Score Residual HPM

Run the recursive candidate through the frozen target season:

uv run nba-train-forward-box-score-residual-hpm --through-season 2025-26

The command rebuilds leakage-safe lagged box-score features from the player-season panel, then fits one HPM and one residual box-score state for each season. It does not use target-season box scores to build that season's prior.

Outputs

artifacts/models/forward_box_score_residual_hpm/2025-26/

Alongside standard HPM outputs, each run records season_box_score_residual_models.joblib and season_box_score_residual_selection.parquet, which contain the annual residual ridge models and their completed-season hyperparameter selections.