2026-27 Exposure-Gated Player Rankings
These are the top 100 returning-player preseason values from the completed
2025-26 recursive one-number exposure-gated RAPM state. They are predictions
for the next regular season, not retrospective 2025-26 rankings. The
2025-26 adjustment column shows how the completed 2025-26 regular-season
fit moved the player from the prior that entered that season.
The source model is Forward Exposure-Gated RAPM. The table is sortable by every column. Players with limited 2025-26 exposure remain visible rather than being silently removed; use the possession column when interpreting small-sample estimates.
Top 100 Returning Players
| Rank | Player | Pos. | 2026-27 RAPM prior | 2025-26 preseason prior | 2025-26 adjustment | 2025-26 possessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikola Jokić | C | +10.99 | +9.43 | +1.56 | 4,786 |
| 2 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | G | +8.99 | +6.86 | +2.14 | 4,730 |
| 3 | Victor Wembanyama | F-C | +7.47 | +1.38 | +6.09 | 3,896 |
| 4 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | F | +7.34 | +6.53 | +0.81 | 2,129 |
| 5 | Jimmy Butler III | F | +7.12 | +6.21 | +0.90 | 2,449 |
| 6 | Kawhi Leonard | F | +6.62 | +3.41 | +3.20 | 4,167 |
| 7 | Joel Embiid | C-F | +6.58 | +6.40 | +0.18 | 2,479 |
| 8 | Derrick White | G | +6.15 | +2.32 | +3.83 | 5,180 |
| 9 | Stephen Curry | G | +6.11 | +7.97 | -1.86 | 2,822 |
| 10 | Alex Caruso | G | +5.69 | +3.89 | +1.79 | 2,125 |
| 11 | Donovan Mitchell | G | +5.64 | +4.64 | +1.00 | 4,925 |
| 12 | Bam Adebayo | C-F | +5.63 | +2.09 | +3.54 | 5,031 |
| 13 | Chet Holmgren | C-F | +5.31 | +2.37 | +2.94 | 4,129 |
| 14 | Devin Booker | G | +5.26 | +3.19 | +2.06 | 4,442 |
| 15 | Jrue Holiday | G | +5.02 | +4.06 | +0.97 | 3,295 |
| 16 | Jayson Tatum | F-G | +4.81 | +4.65 | +0.16 | 1,046 |
| 17 | Chris Paul | G | +4.46 | +6.85 | -2.40 | 457 |
| 18 | Cade Cunningham | G | +4.43 | +1.70 | +2.73 | 4,490 |
| 19 | Marcus Smart | G | +4.40 | +2.28 | +2.13 | 3,607 |
| 20 | Jarrett Allen | C | +4.31 | +4.28 | +0.02 | 3,191 |
| 21 | Rudy Gobert | C | +4.28 | +4.34 | -0.06 | 4,951 |
| 22 | Luka Dončić | F-G | +4.22 | +4.06 | +0.17 | 4,759 |
| 23 | Lauri Markkanen | F-C | +4.11 | +1.96 | +2.16 | 3,080 |
| 24 | Aaron Gordon | F | +4.05 | +3.02 | +1.04 | 2,057 |
| 25 | Pascal Siakam | F | +4.05 | +4.08 | -0.03 | 4,322 |
| 26 | Dyson Daniels | G | +4.00 | +0.06 | +3.94 | 5,317 |
| 27 | OG Anunoby | F-G | +3.80 | +2.37 | +1.44 | 4,531 |
| 28 | Karl-Anthony Towns | C-F | +3.69 | +3.85 | -0.16 | 4,716 |
| 29 | Franz Wagner | F | +3.60 | +4.15 | -0.56 | 2,190 |
| 30 | LaMelo Ball | G | +3.53 | +0.41 | +3.12 | 4,101 |
| 31 | CJ McCollum | G | +3.43 | +0.97 | +2.46 | 4,762 |
| 32 | Paul George | F | +3.30 | +4.92 | -1.62 | 2,328 |
| 33 | Kevin Durant | F | +3.11 | +2.86 | +0.24 | 5,732 |
| 34 | Collin Gillespie | G | +3.04 | -0.28 | +3.32 | 4,626 |
| 35 | Ausar Thompson | G-F | +3.00 | +0.35 | +2.65 | 3,897 |
| 36 | Isaiah Hartenstein | C-F | +2.97 | +1.84 | +1.13 | 2,340 |
| 37 | Tobias Harris | F | +2.91 | +2.09 | +0.82 | 3,604 |
| 38 | LeBron James | F | +2.79 | +5.38 | -2.59 | 4,077 |
| 39 | Herbert Jones | F | +2.79 | +2.06 | +0.73 | 3,289 |
| 40 | James Harden | G | +2.79 | +5.74 | -2.95 | 4,936 |
| 41 | Kevin Huerter | G-F | +2.77 | +1.54 | +1.23 | 3,244 |
| 42 | Amen Thompson | G-F | +2.70 | +0.61 | +2.09 | 5,936 |
| 43 | Anthony Davis | F-C | +2.70 | +3.28 | -0.58 | 1,296 |
| 44 | Davion Mitchell | G | +2.66 | -0.05 | +2.70 | 4,265 |
| 45 | Michael Porter Jr. | F | +2.64 | +0.64 | +2.00 | 3,396 |
| 46 | Julius Randle | F-C | +2.63 | +1.91 | +0.72 | 5,470 |
| 47 | Steven Adams | C | +2.60 | +0.82 | +1.78 | 1,455 |
| 48 | Jalen Brunson | G | +2.56 | +2.66 | -0.10 | 5,240 |
| 49 | Zach Edey | C | +2.56 | +0.22 | +2.33 | 588 |
| 50 | Kyle Lowry | G | +2.53 | +3.94 | -1.41 | 251 |
| 51 | Jalen Smith | F-C | +2.51 | -0.55 | +3.05 | 2,316 |
| 52 | Brandon Miller | F | +2.47 | -1.22 | +3.70 | 3,968 |
| 53 | Ja Morant | G | +2.46 | +3.64 | -1.18 | 1,238 |
| 54 | Kon Knueppel | G-F | +2.32 | -0.54 | +2.86 | 5,207 |
| 55 | De'Aaron Fox | G | +2.28 | +0.18 | +2.10 | 4,707 |
| 56 | Evan Mobley | C | +2.26 | +2.24 | +0.02 | 4,315 |
| 57 | Jaren Jackson Jr. | F-C | +2.18 | +3.05 | -0.87 | 3,071 |
| 58 | Desmond Bane | G | +2.13 | +0.62 | +1.51 | 5,768 |
| 59 | Wendell Carter Jr. | C-F | +2.11 | +1.00 | +1.11 | 4,768 |
| 60 | Jakob Poeltl | C | +2.07 | +3.01 | -0.95 | 2,355 |
| 61 | Jalen Duren | C | +2.04 | -0.31 | +2.35 | 4,080 |
| 62 | Clint Capela | C | +1.99 | +1.02 | +0.98 | 1,847 |
| 63 | Devin Vassell | G-F | +1.97 | -2.74 | +4.71 | 4,258 |
| 64 | Aaron Holiday | G | +1.94 | +1.32 | +0.62 | 1,579 |
| 65 | Moussa Diabaté | F | +1.92 | -2.40 | +4.32 | 3,790 |
| 66 | Al Horford | C-F | +1.86 | +3.82 | -1.96 | 1,986 |
| 67 | Julian Champagnie | F | +1.77 | -2.72 | +4.49 | 4,745 |
| 68 | De'Anthony Melton | G | +1.76 | +0.62 | +1.15 | 2,311 |
| 69 | Scottie Barnes | F-G | +1.74 | -0.57 | +2.30 | 5,512 |
| 70 | Neemias Queta | C | +1.73 | -2.45 | +4.19 | 3,752 |
| 71 | Dwight Powell | F-C | +1.72 | +0.77 | +0.96 | 1,906 |
| 72 | Joe Ingles | F-G | +1.67 | +2.55 | -0.88 | 338 |
| 73 | Payton Pritchard | G | +1.66 | +0.15 | +1.51 | 5,014 |
| 74 | Cedric Coward | G | +1.65 | -0.85 | +2.50 | 3,386 |
| 75 | Nickeil Alexander-Walker | G | +1.64 | +0.10 | +1.54 | 5,561 |
| 76 | Cameron Johnson | F | +1.63 | +0.88 | +0.75 | 3,421 |
| 77 | Miles McBride | G | +1.57 | -0.73 | +2.30 | 2,172 |
| 78 | Jalen Suggs | G | +1.52 | +0.10 | +1.43 | 3,370 |
| 79 | Kevin Love | F-C | +1.51 | +1.72 | -0.21 | 1,306 |
| 80 | Zion Williamson | F | +1.46 | +1.48 | -0.02 | 3,885 |
| 81 | Svi Mykhailiuk | G-F | +1.44 | -0.23 | +1.67 | 2,453 |
| 82 | Immanuel Quickley | G | +1.43 | +1.80 | -0.37 | 4,561 |
| 83 | Isaiah Joe | G | +1.42 | +1.35 | +0.07 | 3,108 |
| 84 | Jusuf Nurkić | C | +1.41 | +1.81 | -0.40 | 2,334 |
| 85 | Josh Green | G | +1.37 | -2.06 | +3.43 | 1,804 |
| 86 | Dillon Brooks | G-F | +1.34 | +2.79 | -1.44 | 3,505 |
| 87 | Jamal Murray | G | +1.33 | +0.13 | +1.20 | 5,443 |
| 88 | Dylan Harper | G | +1.25 | -0.36 | +1.62 | 3,207 |
| 89 | Obi Toppin | F | +1.23 | +0.41 | +0.81 | 901 |
| 90 | Jalen Williams | G-F | +1.22 | +0.90 | +0.32 | 1,965 |
| 91 | Donte DiVincenzo | G | +1.19 | -1.53 | +2.72 | 5,223 |
| 92 | Aaron Nesmith | G-F | +1.19 | +1.43 | -0.24 | 2,809 |
| 93 | Grant Williams | F | +1.18 | -1.28 | +2.46 | 1,438 |
| 94 | Duncan Robinson | F | +1.18 | -1.51 | +2.69 | 4,362 |
| 95 | Sam Hauser | F | +1.16 | -0.04 | +1.20 | 3,838 |
| 96 | Tyrese Maxey | G | +1.16 | -0.82 | +1.98 | 5,494 |
| 97 | Dorian Finney-Smith | F | +1.15 | +3.19 | -2.04 | 1,249 |
| 98 | Kristaps Porziņģis | F-C | +1.12 | +0.60 | +0.52 | 1,616 |
| 99 | Stephon Castle | G | +1.09 | -1.57 | +2.66 | 4,266 |
| 100 | Hugo González | G | +1.05 | -2.32 | +3.37 | 2,133 |