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Evaluate L1-MSP

Run the parameter-free next-game minute-share baseline over the 2024-25 source season and the 2025-26 holdout:

uv run nba-evaluate-l1-minute-share-persistence \
  --seasons 2024-25 2025-26

The command reads curated regular-season player box scores. It uses actual team minutes as the denominator, so overtime requires no special case. The first team-game in each season has no preceding game and is excluded. L1-MSP does not train: these are direct source-season and holdout evaluations of a parameter-free forecast rule.

Outputs are immutable under artifacts/rotation/l1_minute_share_persistence/:

  • <season>_game_predictions.parquet: one row per player in the union of consecutive team-game supports;
  • <season>_team_game_metrics.parquet: allocation and player-share errors;
  • metrics.parquet: one aggregate row per season;
  • metadata.json: the no-parameter L1-MSP contract.