Skip to content

Train Forward Context-Reattributed HPM

This recursive candidate carries a controlled fraction of each completed season's player-projectable context into the next-season player prior, while leaving the untransferred context as the portable composition-plus-matchup offset:

uv run nba-train-forward-context-reattributed-hpm \
  --through-season 2025-26 \
  --context-reattribution-weight 0.5

For a handoff weight \(\rho\), the season-to-season contract is

\[ \mu_{t+1}=\mu^{\mathrm{aging/cold}}_{t+1}+\rho\gamma_t, \qquad C^{\mathrm{residual}}_t=C_t-\rho X\gamma_t. \]

The same \(\rho\) is added to the player prior and removed from the frozen context offset. This prevents double counting. The initial exemplar uses 0.5; the next validation pass will select \(\rho\) using expanding historical seasons only.